The 12-month diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma in the eight major markets (8MM*) are projected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.49% from 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.89 million in 2033, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The lifetime diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma are also projected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.30% from 3.29 million in 2023 to 3.39 million in 2033,

GlobalData’s latest report, “Asthma and Severe Asthma: Epidemiology Forecast to 2033,” estimates that in 2033, the US will have the highest number of 12-month diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma in the 8MM, with approximately 852,000 cases, whereas Japan will have the fewest 12-month prevalent cases with approximately 24,000 cases.

These trends are the same for lifetime diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma, where the US will also have the highest number of lifetime diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma in the 8MM, with approximately 1.35 million cases, whereas Japan will have the fewest lifetime diagnosed prevalent cases with approximately 47,000 cases.

Molly Moran, Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData, says: “The main reason for the expected increase in the 12-month and lifetime diagnosed prevalent cases of severe asthma is population growth and relatively low mortality associated with asthma. Since severe asthma is often a life-long disease, increasing population will lead to an increased burden of severe asthma.”

The future burden of severe asthma will also depend on trends in overall asthma and changes in the prevalence of risk factors such as obesity and older age.

Moran concludes: “Another aspect to consider when it comes to the disease management is the prevalence of inflammatory subtypes of severe asthma. Characterizing severe asthma is critical, especially considering the predicted increase in atopic or allergic asthma by 2033.”